I just couldn’t resist myself. I wrote in jan that the rebound would start on 22 april 2009 and then ‘predicted’ in feb that the bear market would end.
Wow! I got nailed it. I got two predictions right (ok, one is a little bit off, but give me a break). I am certified guru, soothsayer, the big kahuna and should be on CNBC !!. I should charge money for this :)
For those of you who reading this for the first time or are new to the blog – I am joking. I do not believe that anyone can predict the markets and it is a complete waste of time. If you guess enough times using all kinds of mumbo jumbo, you will get it right 50% of the times.
An investment strategy based on 50% success rate will get you nowhere.
A few more interesting points
I have noticed a few more interesting thought processes on other blogs and discussion boards.
- I like the company, but the next 3-6 months are likely to be bad and so I will wait till the performance turns
- I will wait till the election results are clear and then buy when the market crashes
- The export market is bad, US is doomed and I want to wait till everything recovers
So what is being said that one should buy when everything is bright and sunny (or at least everyone thinks so!). So the best time to buy was Late 2007 to Jan 2008. Everyone was optimistic about the world then. Now we all know how that turned out!
Maybe the above works if your investment horizon ranges from a few days to a few months.
However if you are investing for the long term, i personally think the smartest thing to do is to analyse companies in depth and buy them when there are selling at a good discount to instrinsic value.