March 6, 2015

It is all about durability


The easiest way to justify a high PE stock is to say that it has a moat or in other words a sustainable competitive advantage. Once these magic words are uttered, no further analysis or thinking is needed. If there is a moat, it does not matter if the stock sells at a PE of 30 or 70. It is all the same.

On seeing this type of analysis I am reminded of the following the quote from warren buffett
“What the wise do in the beginning, fools do in the end.”
Moat =high PE, but high PE is not always = Moat

A company with a moat may be justified to have a high PE, but a high PE does not mean the mean presence of a moat.

Even if the company supposedly has a moat, it is important to judge the depth and durability of this moat. In addition , the company should also have the opportunity to re-invest future cash flows into the business at high rates of return to create further value.

Lets explore some of these aspects in further detail

More than knee deep

The depth of the moat is simply the excess returns a company can make over its cost of capital. If a company can earn 30% return on capital, we can clearly see that the moat is deep (18% excess return).

This aspect of the moat is the easiest to figure out – Just pick the financials of the company for the last 10 years and check the return on capital of the company. If the average returns are higher than the cost of capital , then we can safely assume that the company had a moat in the past (the future is a different issue).

I personally use 15% return on capital as a threshold. Any company which has earned 15% or higher over an entire business cycle (roughly 3-5 years) is a good candidate for the presence of a moat in the past. Its important not to consider a single year in the analysis as several cyclical companies show a sudden spurt in profitability, before sliding into mediocrity.

The durability factor

The presence of a moat in the past, is only the starting point of analysis. 

The key questions to ask are
-          Is the moat durable -  will the moat survive in the future ?
-          How long will the moat survive ?
-          Will the moat deepen (Return on capital improve), remain same or reduce.

All these factor are very important in the valuation of a business.  Let try to quantify them. I will be using the discounted flow analysis (without doing the math here) and will also be making some simplifying assumptions
  1. EPS = 10 Rs
  2. Return on capital (ROC) = 22%
  3. Growth in profits = 15 %
  4. Company is able to maintain this return on capital and growth for 10 years. After that the ROC drops to 12% and growth to 8% (leading to a terminal PE of around 12)
If you input the above numbers into a DCF model, the fair value comes to around 230 (PE = 23) 
Lets play with these numbers now – Lets assume we underestimated the durability of the moat. The actual life of the moat turns out to be 20 years and not the 10 years when we first analysed the company. If that is the case, the fair value comes to around 430 (PE=43)
I just described the case of several companies such as HDFC bank, Asian paints, Nestle etc. In case of these companies, the markets assumed a certain excess return period, which turned to be too conservative. Anyone who bought the stock at a high looking PE, was actually buying the stock cheap.



The above point has been explained far better by prof. sanjay bakshi in this lecture.
Lets look at a few more happy cases. Lets assume that the company actually ends up earning an ROC of 50% with a growth of 20%. If you plug in these numbers, the fair value  turns out to be around 440 (PE=44). I may have just described what has happened to page industries since 2008.

 So what are the key points?

The market  when valuing a company is making an implicit assumption on the future return on capital, growth and the period for which both these factors will last (after which they regress to the averages). 

An investor makes an above average return only if these numbers turn out to be better than the assumptions built into the stock at the time of purchase.

What happens if the moat turns out to be weak or non existent ?

You have a dud !

Lets assume in our example, that the business tanks after you buy it. It is never able to earn more than 12% return on capital and grows at around 8%.

If the above unhappy situation happens, then the true fair value of the company is around 120 (PE=12). If this turns out to the case, then you will suffer from a 50% loss of capital as the market re-values the company.

Examples ? Look at the case of  bharti airtel. The company was selling at around 470 or PE of 23 in 2007. The company had an ROC of 31% and growth in excess of 15%. The market was assuming an excess return period of 8-10 years at that point of time.

What has happened since then ? The stock price has dropped by around 25% from its peak over the last 8 years – a loss of 2% per annum, which is not exactly a great return.

The reasons are not difficult to see (as always, in hindsight). The telecom market after growing at a breakneck speed till 2007-08 started slowing down. In addition the competitive intensity of the industry increased with almost all other players losing money for most of the time. If these problems were not enough, Bharti went ahead and made an expensive acquisition (Zain) in Africa which suppressed the return on capital further.

In effect all the key drivers of value, turned south from 2007-08 onwards resulting in a loss for the long term investor.

We can derive some key points from the discussion till now
-          A high return on capital in the past is a necessary, but not a sufficient condition to demonstrate the presence of a moat
-          It is also important to judge the depth and longevity or durability of moat. If your estimate is correct and turns out to be higher than that of the market, then you will excess returns. If not, be prepared to lose money or at best make market level returns .
-          As a corollary a buy and hold works only if you get the durability aspect correct. If the moat shrinks and disappears, a buy and hold strategy will not save you  

So how does one figure out the durability of the moat. There is no magical formulae where you can punch in a set of numbers and out will pop the duration. It is a highly subjective exercise and the topic of the next post.

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Stocks discussed in this post are for educational purpose only and not recommendations to buy or sell. Please contact a certified investment adviser for your investment decisions. Please read disclaimer towards the end of blog.

January 7, 2015

Emotions and investing

We are all supposed to be perfectly rational, supercomputers that can do a discounted cash flow analysis on every investment idea we come across. If this is not enough, we are also supposed to be able to compare all investment options at the same time, before making a decision.
This is what most ivory tower professors would have us believe (except one ). Ofcourse this does a lot of disservice to a budding investor, who feels stupid when he or she lets emotions creep into the decision process.

I have invested for around 15 years now and in the countless investors I have followed, I have yet to come across anyone who comes close to this mythical investor. For the ordinary investor like me, I find it far more useful to acknowledge my irrationality and learn to work with it. Although there are no universal rules to managing emotions when investing, let me share my experiences as some would definitely be instructive.

Let’s start with a list of some commonly felt emotions and their impact –

Fear
Think back to August – Oct 2013. Rupee dropped close to 71 to a dollar. Current account deficit was around 5% and at the risk of expanding further. The Indian government led by congress was in a state of paralysis. The net effect – The stock market dropped close to 10%. The same story had occurred in 2003, 2008-09 and 2011.

Inspite of the economy and market coming back after a few years in the past, a majority of the commentators and investors decided to stay away from the market. This is even more surprising considering the fact that Mid caps and small caps were selling at 5-6 year lows and some highly profitable and growing companies were available at decent valuations.

My thinking: It is not that I am immune to fear and pessimism. I felt equal depressed about the state of affairs and angry with the government. However, during such times I go by my sense of history (past record of the stock market) and valuations. If the company is doing well and available at decent valuations, I will buy the stock without worrying about when I will be proven right. How does it matter if the stock doubles in one year or the end of year three?

Greed
I don’t have to go far on this one. Look around now – after almost five years, the small investor is now coming back. We have mutual funds advertising the last one year results and people are now getting excited about equity after a 55% rise from the bottom.
This is a very predictable pattern. Gold increased by 19% CAGR from 2001-2011 and everyone was bullish about gold.


Indians, with a perennial love for gold, found one more reason to buy it and anything associated with gold such as jewelry companies got swept up in the same euphoria.
Gold is down 25% now and so are gold related companies. As far as I know, I am not seeing analysts recommending gold or gold related companies now.

So the emotion of greed is obvious – once we see others make money, it is easy to be envious and follow the crowd. The result is predictable too – The last people to join the herd also lose the most money.

My thinking: I have a standard thumb rule. Do not buy something which almost everyone is recommending. If I do buy into something which is the current flavor of the market, I try to move slowly into it so that I don’t lose much if the tide turns. In addition to that, I won’t buy something I don’t understand. For example – I was never able to understand what the true free cash flow for most gold companies is (except titan industries), considering all their profits are generally eaten up by inventory. As a result, I just stayed away from them.

Love and security
Now this is not an emotion, one associates with money and investing. I did not consider it relevant for a long time, but as I think about gold and real estate, I can see the role of these two key emotions

I first realized the importance of love and security as an investment criteria when my mother tried to convince me to buy gold to secure the future of the family. I tried to explain that equities give a better return, but soon realized that there was no way I could convince her.  Of course, she decided to take matters in her own hands – she went and bought some gold for the family and said that that was her way of providing security to the family :)

The effect of emotional attachment is very high with gold – When it goes up, people justify its purchase based on the price rise. If it goes down, the justification changes to it being undervalued or being a hedge against catastrophe or any other reason you can think of.
If you still don’t agree with me – go to your spouse or any other member of you family and suggest the following: Please hand me your gold, I will sell it and invest it in a higher return instrument. In X number of years from now, you can buy more gold than what you have now. I have tried it and I am scared to use the two words ‘gold and sell’ again in the same sentence :)
 
Flaunting
If you think, love and security alone explains the fascination for gold – think again. I always found it irrational to buy gold or even real estate (beyond your housing need) if all that you are looking for is high returns.

This thinking changed when my family and in-laws felt that I had finally arrived in life when I bought my own flat with a big loan and essentially signed my life to the housing finance company (read EMI!). I never got any praise for buying an asian paints or any other long term compounder , whereas the flat was a concrete evidence (no pun intended) that I was doing something right in life

There is a tangible quality to both gold and real estate. You can see it, feel it and even flaunt it . In the past one could look and touch the stock certificates, but now with demat accounts what are you going to show others?

Imagine this fictious dialogue

Mom to her friend: My son has finally arrived in life! he bought a 1000 sqft flat in XYZ location. We are going to grah pravesh (house warming). Why don’t you join us? <so that she can show the house and feel proud>

Versus

Mom to friend: My son bought 1000 shares of asian paints. Let me show you his demat account! you know this company has a sustainable ……… will this dialogue ever happen!!

It’s the same with gold. Your wife or mother can wear the gold and in a lot of cases this serves to signal that the family or husband/ son is wealthy.  So gold and real estate actually help in feeling secure or in displaying wealth. It is incidental that they earn some return too.

These emotions sometimes creep into stocks too. At the height of a bubble, investors want to invest in the hottest companies so that they can show their friends and colleagues how smart they are.

My thinking: In my own case, I have usually not felt the need to flaunt (or so I believe).  At the same time, I try hard to avoid envy, which causes one to do stupid things such as chase the latest investment fad or buy stuff to show off.

There are only a two exceptions to the above rule in my case – The first one is that the emotional value of your own home is high, so it don’t look at it as a financial decision, but something which makes my family feel secure. The second one is that when my wife wants to buy jewelry I look at it as an expense to keep her happy

The driver
Volatility in prices is not an emotion in itself, but a driver of a lot of emotions we have been talking about. When stock prices crash, we can see that investors are overcome by fear, despair and in some cases complete disgust to the point of avoiding equities forever.

On the contrary if prices rise rapidly the reverse happens – we see greed and euphoria. These feelings are common to all investments, but as the volatility is high in stocks compared to other options, these emotions are amplified in the stock market.

I personally think that one of the reasons investors make higher returns in stocks compared to other options on average, is due to the higher volatility which tends to put off a lot of people. Investing in stocks is tough emotionally, no matter how long one does it. You go through periods of sickening drops and exhilarating spikes and it never gets easier, emotionally.

Take your pick
So it comes down to what one is looking for in their investments. If you want to flaunt your wealth or to feel warm and fuzzy, then go for real estate and gold. The returns could be good, if you have specialized skills in these asset classes, but then that is a different ball game.

If you want complete peace of mind – invest in Fixed deposits and sleep well. There is no harm in that!

If you are ready for a few sleepless nights, stomach churning drops in your networth (even if temporary) or sudden euphoric rise, and have nerves of steel to handle all of these emotions, then you will be rewarded with higher returns over the long term. That is equity investing

This brings me to a final anecdote –
I was discussing about expected returns of various types of assets such as real estate and stocks with a friend. I mentioned that one should expect anywhere between 15-18% from the stock market in the long run. To this, my friend replied that he ‘wanted’ nothing less than 20% per annum.

I asked my friend on why he ‘wanted’  these returns? Ofcourse he had no reason for it. It was just something he thought should be the case!

My reply was that like my kids, if you are wishing for something as they wish during Christmas from santaclaus, you should not hold yourself back. Why stop at 20%, why not ask for 100% - maybe your wish will come true!

We are still good friends, but don’t talk about investments any longer :). This is the final emotion a lot of uninformed investors suffer from – Hope

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Stocks discussed in this post are for educational purpose only and not recommendations to buy or sell. Please contact a certified investment adviser for your investment decisions. Please read disclaimer towards the end of blog.

December 17, 2014

Scared ? Worried ?

Oil down 50%+, Ruble crashing. Rupee on its way down and maybe  the stock market too !

Worried about your stocks ?
Take a deep breath and ask these questions (I ask some of them and a lot of times the answers I get make me see my mistake)
Are you retiring next year ? If yes, why the hell is that money in the stock market!
Do you understand the business and have confidence in the long term performance of the company ? If not, why did you invest in the first place?
Do you lose sleep from the volatility and quotational loss of your portfolio ? If yes, why are you not in just fixed deposits?
Do you have good health, another source of income and don’t need the money in the next few years ?  If yes, then stop watching the financial news and go back to some more productive activities?
As I said in the previous post, I have a consulting service to provide a list of very productive activities to people who watch too much Financial news !  Call me for a free consultation :)
If you think this is new - read this, this and this. This is almost an annual or a once in two year affair. For the some of you who were wishing for bad times, be careful what you wish for! you may finally get it, so better be ready for it.



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Stocks discussed in this post are for educational purpose only and not recommendations to buy or sell. Please contact a certified investment adviser for your investment decisions. Please read disclaimer towards the end of blog.

November 26, 2014

Active patience

I think the next 2-3 years are not going to be easy, just because we are in a bull market. A few of you who decided to invest when India was supposedly going down the drain, must be feeling good about it. It is fine to feel good about it, but one should not get carried away by it.

More noise
In a bear market, as we had in the last 3-4 years, almost no one spoke about the stock market except as a place to avoid. Unless you turned on one of the financial news channels, it was easy to avoid any talk about it.

The advantage of this comparative silence was that you could think investing without too much distraction. The situation has changed quite a bit in the last few months. We now have friends, colleagues and relatives, all getting excited about the market. If like me, your acquaintances know that you invest in the stock market, I am sure you must get badgered with tips for the top ten hot stocks which will double in 21 days – small caps especially.

In my case you can imagine the disappointment  – recommending people to invest in 2013 when no one wanted to, and being cautious now when everyone and his dog thinks we are at the start of a multi-year bull run.

Feeling envy
It is easy to feel envy when you see others do better  during such times. The media adds fuel to the fire by publishing the list of stocks which have gone by 50 or 100 times in the last 4-5 years. Ofcourse, they were silent when these stocks were starting the journey.

In addition, you now have friends and other investors boasting how they doubled their money in the last six months, by buying the hottest idea.

One can abandon his or her approach and start chasing such stocks which have worked well for others in the past. From personal experience, I can tell you that this never works out (atleast for me).

Unnecessary churn
As the market touches new high, I think some people get itchy to sell stocks which have given high returns and recycle them into new positions, which ‘appear’ to be cheap.

I am looking for new ideas too, but will not do it for the sake of ‘doing something’, unless I think it will add to the overall returns. If this means doing nothing for long periods of time – so be it.

Let me explain further – I currently have around 19-20 positions in my portfolio. I am constantly looking for new ideas. As I am close to fully invested, I will have to sell an existing idea, incur the brokerage and taxes (if any) and then buy the new position. The implication of this decision is that I expect this new idea which has been analyzed for a few weeks, will do better than an existing company which I have analyzed and followed for more than a year.

There are people who are smart enough to do this consistently – I am not one of them. I do not want to take these decisions lightly. If the time horizon is 2-3 years and more in my case, it is really important that I take a little more time to think through this decision.

Being patient is never easy
I have found bull markets to be far more difficult to handle than other times. For starters, it involves doing nothing for long stretches of time, when stocks are going up and you are missing out on easy money ( that the  easy money is lost in the end is a different matter).

Let me ask a few rhetorical questions (which I keep asking myself too) – is it really important to have all the hottest stocks in your portfolio? Is it really necessary or even possible to have the highest possible returns at all times, if a lower rate of return at much lesser risk will meet your goals ? Is this investing or just showing off?

The main challenge we will face in the coming months and years is to keep our heads amidst the euphoria. It is very easy to get carried away and starting buying marginal companies showing profit and stock price momentum – I have done that a bit in the past and it has always come back to bite me.

Let me suggest a few activities to keep you busy while waiting for the right opportunity
-          Watch TV soaps, especially the family dramas. They have a lot of twist and turns too (or so I have heard)
-          Take up body building or weights. You will have chiseled body if the bull market turns out to be a 10 year one J
-          Go for long walks and walk a little more every day. If this a long bull market, you may be walking the whole day
-          If you are single, go to parties and have fun. If you have been investing in the past and not partying, shame on you anyway – what a waste of youth!

For those of you who like me, cannot do any of the above – keep faith and hope. This too will pass. The skies will turn dark again, and they will be gloom and doom. You will get your chance then J

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Stocks discussed in this post are for educational purpose only and not recommendations to buy or sell. Please contact a certified investment adviser for your investment decisions. Please read disclaimer towards the end of blog.