November 23, 2012

2013 market predictions

We are approaching the year end and soon the experts will start coming out with their predictions for next year. As there is a lot of competition to be the first one, I decided to get ahead in the line by kicking it off in November itself

So here goes
1.    Barring any macro-economic shocks and if sensex earnings exceed 15%, the stock market should be up next year. If however we have a crisis in Europe or we get an oil shock then the index could even touch 10000 levels.

2.    Gold could be up by 10%, if we get a major recession in US due to the fiscal cliff and it could surprise us on the upside if it coincides with the further instability in Greece and Spain. Over the long term, the macro-economic and supply-demand drivers point to a continued increase in gold prices.

3.    Capital good stocks in India could surprise on the upside if the current momentum on the reforms continue. One needs to focus on high quality names in the sector

4.    The consumption story continues to play out and high quality names should outperform the market in 2013, barring any sudden depreciation of the rupee. Demand from consumption centers, such as India and China largely seem to be on a firm footing

5.    The real estate market will continue to face headwinds of high interest rates in the initial part of the year, but if  RBI starts cutting rates in the second half, we could see higher activity in certain pockets of the market

6.    Rohit Chauhan will become the smartest and richest investor in the Indian stock markets.  President Obama and other world leaders will seek his counsel on how to fix the developed economies J

Did I get you? Do you realize how absurd these predictions are?
There is a consistent pattern in all these predictions. They are not predicting anything and are simply stating that a market will go up if all conditions are right, otherwise it will go down (if the conditions go bad). This is similar to what you would hear from an astrologer if you were to ask him about your future.
One more point – I did not make up all these predictions. I just googled some sites and cut and paste what I found for 2012 (yes for the current year !!).
If you really feel the urge to get some predictions for 2013 on the cheap, please email me and send me 10 Rs. I know a guy on the street with a parrot, who for 10 bucks , will ask his bird to pick a card and will use the card to tell you the future. The parrot is a better fortune teller (50% accuracy), is crisp and short (no beating round the bush) and much cheaper.


Neeraj Marathe said...

Hahahahahaha..excellent post..
every thought of getting in the business of selling these parrots? :-D

Rohit Chauhan said...

ofcourse ..i have three types :) standard, premium and gold

the gold parrots even tell you which stock to buy. you must have seen some of them on the TV :)


Pradeep Raghunathan said...

Ha ha. That is hilarious. For a few seconds, I was caught on the wrong foot. :)

saurabh shankar said...

ha ha...brilliant. Also, these parrots live forever...dunno what are they fed ;)


Ninad Kunder said...

Since you are at it can you also predict the moods of our wives for the next year :-).

Also if you could suggest where I could download the parrot app.


Abhi said...

You should launch a new finance channel and call it - Prediction NOW.

better yet launch a new website doing parody of these analyst like the

hnarsana said...

Rohit you @#$!$!@.. hahaha I read the predictions and with each, I was like this guy has lost it after all those wonderful posts..

I'm a new reader, found your blog via google about 2 months back. :)

Keep up the good work!

Anonymous said... got me there...

Dev said...

Would love to see Sensex at 10000 levels. I would start buying like a mad man :-)
Your post highlights that making predictions is redundant. All one needs to do is to stay sane, not become irrationally exuberant, and finally, just avoid making big mistakes. That's all one needs to become successful in investing and for that matter, in game of life and money.

Vidyanshu Pandey said...

Nice one Rohit! for a moment there like the others I was wondering what you were up to?
Rgds, Vidyanshu.

Rohit Chauhan said...

Hi pradeep
yes that was idea :)

the cast of parrots keep changing, but they repeat the same. i guess they must on a special diet :)


Rohit Chauhan said...

Hi ninad
doing stock prediction is harmless. you get paid to do it and no harm for getting it wrong. if i get the prediction on wives wrong ..i will be punished with a full day of shopping :)

i am developing the app will give 5 predictions each month for 200 Rs :)


Rohit Chauhan said...

Hi abhi
for all you know my prediction channel and site will do much better than the blog and make money.

maybe i should go full time into this prediction business :) more lucrative, and there are enough people around to fool:)


Rohit Chauhan said...

hi hnarsana
you are right ...a lot of the new readers would have been surprised or may have not even read the whole thing, thinking that i have started the prediction business now :)


Rohit Chauhan said...

hi dev
yes @10000 levels it would require a lot courage too because that level would be reached if we have some major crisis.

you are right long as one stays rational, we dont need to forecast or predict. however most people would believe in forecasts than think


Rohit Chauhan said...

Hi vidyanshu
good to see you back. having some fun :) no point in always talking about serious stuff and this prediction business is funny


VIKAS KUKS said...

Hi Rohit,
Wonderful hilarious post after a long time... and damn what a sarcasm...
but the main point is that prediction is so redundant and any rational man should just ignore it like anything.
Thanks for the post again...

Vikas Kukreja

Nilesh said...

anyone reading your blog for so long, just looking at subject, one knew its going to be a sarcastic post ;)

Anonymous said...

It is so interesting and entertaining, great post, Rohit!

Shantanu said...

hahaha :)

Awesome one .... that brought a smile on my face ... after a rather dull Monday morning

still smiling :-)


Anonymous said...

A lot of smart people buy into these predictions when they believe their assumptions and the reasoning supporting them are foolproof. They believe their own lies.

The best book i have ever read on investing was about critical reasoning.

Lucky said...

I would love to have Sensex @ 10K or even 12K in 2013; especially and additionally, if it comes down from 22K.

Satyajeet Mishra said...

“Simply stating that a market will go up if all conditions are right.” - I think that's a great point! :-)

Since the hollowness of such statements is not apparent at first glance, it needs to be pointed out.

Also, loved the way you 'showed/demonstrated'. Good lesson learnt.

Nirmal Sharda said...

Wow.... Hw true for most of us...