tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post8258119095089005932..comments2023-09-02T19:53:06.144+05:30Comments on Understanding and applying value investing principles: Falling off the cliffRohit Chauhanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00356455735241398199noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-68947747789576421752013-07-09T17:26:32.831+05:302013-07-09T17:26:32.831+05:30nice post, very good learning,
can u give some opi...nice post, very good learning,<br />can u give some opinion on gmmpfaudler/gujarat machinery, listed on BSE. fallen from 140 to 72 in 8 months- after buyback at 88 which closed about 1/2 months back<br />dilipdilipnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-167528017452599672013-01-26T13:25:49.457+05:302013-01-26T13:25:49.457+05:30Excellent article Rohit.
It is coincidence, I was...Excellent article Rohit.<br /><br />It is coincidence, I was just discussing the same with a friend few days back.<br /><br />I have seen such examples over and over again i.e. ppl loosing money when they enter other businesses than their core expertise.<br /><br />It is restlessness and sometimes the suggestions/advise from our friends that lead to such ventures.<br /><br />Good one..keep such gems coming.<br /><br />VikasAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-60800138492683914652013-01-24T22:36:32.650+05:302013-01-24T22:36:32.650+05:30Very nice post. As said - it is important to learn...Very nice post. As said - it is important to learn from history - the prepared mind learns from others mistakes.Niloy Gogoihttp://investmentandwealth.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-44276489774515043222013-01-15T11:20:33.628+05:302013-01-15T11:20:33.628+05:30Hi Rohit,
Your position in Zylog and the thought ...Hi Rohit,<br /><br />Your position in Zylog and the thought process behind the same is well explained in this post which I found very interesting:<br /><br />http://www.futureblind.com/2013/01/mistakes-information/Pradeep Raghunathanhttp://valueinvestinginindia.wordpress.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-57626753864781472552013-01-14T16:19:48.401+05:302013-01-14T16:19:48.401+05:30Rohit, very nice post.
I think a major part of i...Rohit, very nice post. <br /><br />I think a major part of investing is avoiding such bets! It can kill years of compounding.<br /><br />Cheers<br />VishalVishal Mittalnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-36281175379843665532013-01-14T11:21:56.842+05:302013-01-14T11:21:56.842+05:30In Zylogs case more than the cash flow problems, I...In Zylogs case more than the cash flow problems, I think it is just the recent Satyam scam fresh in investors minds which made them sell and the stock kept collapsing. Perfect example of 'Herd mentality' at play.<br />Zylog officials say they have the financial strength to withstand the crisis. May be they are right may be not. But at current levels there seems to be tremendous value. U too find value at th current levels right?Mokhtarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03576478960773365600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-55437041359993467742013-01-14T11:19:34.916+05:302013-01-14T11:19:34.916+05:30Hi,
I actually don't track Deccan Chronicles b...Hi,<br />I actually don't track Deccan Chronicles but I'm curious as to how such a huge pile of debt was hidden? Can you just briefly help me understand or any article which I could go through...ThanksNandishnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-83435405451274533892013-01-13T22:19:56.683+05:302013-01-13T22:19:56.683+05:30hi anil
i would not call such postions a mistake. ...hi anil<br />i would not call such postions a mistake. i do such things actively - on very tiny amounts<br /><br />these position have a large learning value which is worth more than the money lost. one could get the same by just watching it, but when you put real money, the experience is very very different.<br /><br />it helps one in avoiding such mistakes in the larger serious position.<br /><br />I have actually allocated a very small % of the portfolio to such speculative plays<br /><br />rgds<br />rohitRohit Chauhanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00356455735241398199noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-36176731991170143542013-01-13T22:17:14.694+05:302013-01-13T22:17:14.694+05:30zulfiqar
i am testing a hypothesis that the manage...zulfiqar<br />i am testing a hypothesis that the management will fix cash flow problems and the business is worth more than the current mcap<br /><br />however it is a speculative position with a large probability of loss. it is also a very tiny, insignificant position<br /><br />rgds<br />rohitRohit Chauhanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00356455735241398199noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-17188347775092799382013-01-13T22:15:53.949+05:302013-01-13T22:15:53.949+05:30hi vidyanshu
oh there are many more - glodyne, cra...hi vidyanshu<br />oh there are many more - glodyne, crane etc which have dropped off the cliff.<br /><br />i checked glodyne earlier ..i could not see outright fraud - atleast not at any big scale. it seems to be same story - pricey accquisitions, commoditizing busniess and weakining cash flows all leading to unsustainable debts<br /><br />on a broader basis i am getting very concerned of the IT space. it is commoditizing fast and we are seeing the impact the lower end ..will it catch up with the big guys too ? time will tell<br /><br />rgds<br />rohitRohit Chauhanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00356455735241398199noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-50768192421734709232013-01-13T22:13:25.247+05:302013-01-13T22:13:25.247+05:30investing thoughts
yes true , ashriya is going th...investing thoughts <br />yes true , ashriya is going through the same. however i dont see anything new ...its the same - high leverage, cash flow problems and the market now punishing the stock hard on it<br /><br />rgds<br />rohitRohit Chauhanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00356455735241398199noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-56361657722486750462013-01-13T14:00:23.692+05:302013-01-13T14:00:23.692+05:30Thanks for another good post. Just want to share m...Thanks for another good post. Just want to share my experience and learning by investment in Deccan Chronicle.<br /><br />This is not a stock which I buy in general but made an exception as I saw there was probability of substantial profits and also probability of total loss of capital. Invested very tiny amount for experimental purpose. But it was a great lesson for me in learning that we should sell the stock when the reason to buy it no longer remains, instead of inventing new reason to continue to hold. Another lesson was in most cases ‘cockroach theory’ holds true and just like there is never a single cockroach in kitchen, there is never a single problem. I bought it in early August 2012 believing on newspaper reports that debt is around 1,500cr and on that enterprise valuation of around 1,800cr, I thought it still holds some value. But the mistake I made was I did not sell in Sept-12 when the total debt zoomed to 5,000 cr. I could have sold it at INR 10 even at the lowest price in September-12, but I hold on till Dec-12 and finally decided to sell at INR 6 after CDR was refused and ALL independent directors resigned Anil Kumar Tulsiramhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08957135865779188117noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-78216205790276348852013-01-13T12:47:37.182+05:302013-01-13T12:47:37.182+05:30what made u invest in zylog?what made u invest in zylog?zulfiqarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14929977309202065970noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-88266819571555342912013-01-13T12:45:52.898+05:302013-01-13T12:45:52.898+05:30what made u invested tiny amount in zylog, u must ...what made u invested tiny amount in zylog, u must have some logical reason?zulfiqarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14929977309202065970noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-67214252576579387942013-01-13T09:19:18.128+05:302013-01-13T09:19:18.128+05:30Hi Rohit,
One other company in the "IT"...Hi Rohit,<br /><br />One other company in the "IT" Sector is Glodyne Technoserve. I was going through this company and it looks like a fraud company to me. Can you have a look?<br /><br />BTW, it has a similar graph to the one's above. A "cliff" pattern :)<br /><br />Best, Vidyanshu.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-83436151508914171552013-01-13T08:18:49.706+05:302013-01-13T08:18:49.706+05:30Hi Rohit,
Good post! I think you can add one more...Hi Rohit,<br /><br />Good post! I think you can add one more company in this "cliff" list : Arshiya International. <br /><br />Company price is down around 50% due to cash flow issues.<br /><br />This could be in second or third (new) category depending on quality of business.<br /><br />RegardsInvesting Thoughtshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05501203988490103501noreply@blogger.com