tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post5360195577625168590..comments2023-09-02T19:53:06.144+05:30Comments on Understanding and applying value investing principles: Some portfolio changesRohit Chauhanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00356455735241398199noreply@blogger.comBlogger31125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-25882856559167061582010-11-21T08:08:49.186+05:302010-11-21T08:08:49.186+05:30Hi Rohit and all
It is good to read your views.
...Hi Rohit and all<br /><br />It is good to read your views.<br /><br />I have been following NIIT Tech for few quarters (5 to be precise) and am quite convinced about their future. They are taking the right decisions and now looking for venturing into the Health care industry. <br /><br />The EPS (trailing 4 quarters) of the company have been growing from 15 to 19.45 (with Sep results). <br /><br />Do you still fell it is fairly valued should be exited. Horizon for me is around 3 years from now.<br /><br />Kindly guide.<br /><br />rgds<br />AVGAVGnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-8453028329258333642010-11-12T03:36:41.170+05:302010-11-12T03:36:41.170+05:30Thanks Mahendra, really liked the analysis by Dipa...Thanks Mahendra, really liked the analysis by Dipak.Vikas Ranahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05508406035178681504noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-56511864028800765872010-11-12T00:45:34.368+05:302010-11-12T00:45:34.368+05:30Hi dhiraj
i have always stressed that one should n...Hi dhiraj<br />i have always stressed that one should never buy based on someone's analysis alone, it is always dicey<br />i analyse close to 10-20 stocks for everyone one stock i pick ..so please dont by my analysis alone. if i create a position, i declare it in the post as full disclosure<br />on mangalam ..i have not created a position as i am not comfortable with the company yet ..so there is hardly any advise i can give you on a stock on which i am not sure myself.<br /><br />only suggestion i can give you is that you should read up on the company and make your own decision as to whether you should still hold on or exit<br /><br />sorry, cannot give any other advise<br />rgds<br />rohitRohit Chauhanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00356455735241398199noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-79924722084344770632010-11-12T00:40:50.708+05:302010-11-12T00:40:50.708+05:30mahendra
thanks for link had not seen itmahendra<br />thanks for link had not seen itRohit Chauhanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00356455735241398199noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-78760507359498174612010-11-12T00:38:58.768+05:302010-11-12T00:38:58.768+05:30Hi rayhaan
alls caps are fine for me ..have no lik...Hi rayhaan<br />alls caps are fine for me ..have no liking or disliking for the size of a company. i only look for a underpriced company with a good management and where i can understand the risk ..till date i have not been comfortable with the risk of the micro cap stocks ..its just me and does not mean that is not an attractive area<br /><br />btw, investing is not a full time thing for me. i do it on the side<br /><br />rgds<br />rohitRohit Chauhanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00356455735241398199noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-17406488049963351262010-11-11T14:32:19.224+05:302010-11-11T14:32:19.224+05:30hi rohit,
i bought mangalam cement ,as your fan cl...hi rohit,<br />i bought mangalam cement ,as your fan club at my office was of the opinion that even those stocks u only research also give a good return ultimately, however the stock has fallen steeply so plz advice<br />dhirajAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-43146331666118002082010-11-11T07:59:17.741+05:302010-11-11T07:59:17.741+05:30Thanks Rohit, appreciate your feedback on HTMT.Thanks Rohit, appreciate your feedback on HTMT.Vikas Ranahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05508406035178681504noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-48969752537288713472010-11-10T21:13:25.450+05:302010-11-10T21:13:25.450+05:30Hi Vikas,
You can refer http://www.go2cio.com/a...Hi Vikas,<br /> You can refer http://www.go2cio.com/articles/index.php?id=3217 for ricoh analysis done by Dipak SenMahendrahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00156030288363841985noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-33122091149469471082010-11-10T14:25:58.779+05:302010-11-10T14:25:58.779+05:30@sandy -thanks 4 d heads up , dude.Will be more se...@sandy -thanks 4 d heads up , dude.Will be more selective in d future (sure feel lucky 2 be making mistakes right now in the hope that i'll make lesser no. of them wen i grow up...:) ) still i feel that Teesta offers good value in a diversified portfolio like mine and maybe can be viewed as a calculated risk(really hope this isnt just confirmation bias , i mean ayush 2 has a position i think and i 've already bought them) .its so freaking tough 2 buy these illiquid stocks , I mean i've been trying 2 grab these - remi process (very low p/e,bv and fcf multiples , impressive Roce and a div yield of 30%), elcid invesments( promotes stake above 75%, trading lower than cash per share and a div yield of 75% approx!) .Really wish i kud get 1 of these.anywayz r u also in2 investing fulltime like rohit?<br />P.S.. DOES ANYBODY HAVE ANY IDEA ABOUT THE SIGNIFICANCE OF CASH RETURN (FCF /EV)?<br />@rohit - sumbody really hates smallcaps , is sumbody like mark twain's cat? Did liquidity get u down? Did the management make u frown?did the management run away wid d cash? Did the profits turn 2 ash? y does everybody h8 a cigarbutt microcap?.....lol(pls 4give d rhyme , just saw sound of music and cant get how do u solve a problem like mariah out of my head) . So have u ever invested in a micro /smallcap? Are there any factors 2 b kept in mind while investing here? p.s if possible pls have a luk at navin fluorine(awsum roce ,cashreturn,fcf,gross margins and fcf to sales+gud management stake),u might find something u like esp. since u like patel airtemps.rayhaannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-42303018143663296312010-11-10T09:35:22.538+05:302010-11-10T09:35:22.538+05:30Hi sandy
the catalyst in microcap and small caps i...Hi sandy<br />the catalyst in microcap and small caps is growth and good returns..these are such small companies that the market will notice only if they grow. <br />growth and scalability comes down to the management ..so in such cases it is usually a bet on management and not on the asset alone - unless it such a niche business that it will grow without much competition<br /><br />rgds<br />rohitRohit Chauhanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00356455735241398199noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-37930525044895129582010-11-10T09:33:22.740+05:302010-11-10T09:33:22.740+05:30hi vic
the company sells at less than 2 times free...hi vic<br />the company sells at less than 2 times free cash flow when it is growing by 10% per annum and has an ROE of more than 50%. in addition it now has a good dividend yield ..so management is returning cash.<br />also the management has utilized capital for expansion prudently in the last 2-3 years ..have grown well<br /><br />the biz ofcourse has risk, especially from the dollar depreciation<br /><br />regarding the market ..it has a mind of its own. merck stagnated to 2+ years for me and then doubled and more in 8 months ...so one can never say when the turn will come<br /><br />rgds<br />rohitRohit Chauhanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00356455735241398199noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-22543203170302093912010-11-10T09:30:32.077+05:302010-11-10T09:30:32.077+05:30hi anon
i dont have specific books in mind ..try a...hi anon<br />i dont have specific books in mind ..try any first MBA text book on financial analysis ..that would be a good place to start<br /><br />rgds<br />rohitRohit Chauhanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00356455735241398199noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-37462072259970606382010-11-10T09:29:44.630+05:302010-11-10T09:29:44.630+05:30Hi rayhaan
your numbers add up ...i havent analyse...Hi rayhaan<br />your numbers add up ...i havent analysed the biz closely enough as it is too small a company. i generally dont go for such small companies<br />however i would not look at it from an asset standpoint alone ..it will worth more only if the management can grow this business.<br />so if you can figure that part out then you may have a good bargain<br /><br />rgds<br />rohitRohit Chauhanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00356455735241398199noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-43624861422322076792010-11-09T19:43:54.554+05:302010-11-09T19:43:54.554+05:30@rayhaan
What is the catalyst here to unlock the ...@rayhaan<br /><br />What is the catalyst here to unlock the value?<br />the balance sheet looks good and the business is available dirt cheap with all the fixed assets u get for free. For a diversified portfolio of 10-15 stocks or more it would seem a good buy but if one has a concentrated portfolio it would be seem more attractive if it had a catalyst to unlock the value otherwise it would remain a bargain forever and u mite end up buying a value trap.<br />yeh but its too cheap man and sometimes value can be its own catalyst.<br />be patient we will get some better bargains in nano cap mkt in the near future, m sure u know that we dont get paid for activity, just for being right ;)<br />yeh but keep searchingSandeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15100675915376841803noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-88516328737161136852010-11-08T21:18:14.173+05:302010-11-08T21:18:14.173+05:30Thanks Rohit for your feedback.
Please do share y...Thanks Rohit for your feedback.<br /><br />Please do share your review of HTMT's results when you get a chance. There has to be some reason of falling from level of 500's when the market has done the opposite.<br /><br />I would like to know the discount at the current price of 400.<br /><br />I had bought @ 130 when you had first posted the idea in 2008..still holding it. <br /><br />Will appreciate your feedback..as always.<br /><br />Thanks,<br /><br />VikasVikas Ranahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05508406035178681504noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-58570397056948846312010-11-08T11:01:57.338+05:302010-11-08T11:01:57.338+05:30Hi Rohit-
Can you suggest a good book to learn fi...Hi Rohit-<br /><br />Can you suggest a good book to learn financial statement analysis?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-57162670871285413902010-11-08T09:54:02.282+05:302010-11-08T09:54:02.282+05:30hi rohit , i meant teesta looked like a bargain fr...hi rohit , i meant teesta looked like a bargain from a net -net point of view.i mean luk at d stats - 20 crores of cash + 22 crores of debtors (not sure , wot value 2 expect from those since lets face it ,GOI is a better creditor than a debtor ) + inventory (didnt factor that in since fertilizer prices are subject 2 the moods of the commodity market) +rs 1.76 crore approx. Of allahabad bank shares + 2000 units of sbi mutual fund AND A MARKET CAP OF 11 CRORES ! also the management owns a 36% stake. I mean at this price u are getting the fixed assets virtually free of cost! Yeah , it is a lousy biz no doubt and theres the issue of value unlocking hb portfolio style ,BUT AT THIS PRICE IT LUKS FREAKING CHEAP! with good m.o.s. Eager to hear your views on this 'cigarbutt'.<br />P.s.Dude,You sure sound a lot like my english teacher...lol . How old are u anyway?rayhaannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-28696784857648516402010-11-08T05:29:56.333+05:302010-11-08T05:29:56.333+05:30Hi vikas
dude ..i am not that old that you want to...Hi vikas<br />dude ..i am not that old that you want to be me when you grow up :) ..<br /><br />on FDC ..getting it at 70 would be good ..but since then the company is doing fine and i am comfortable buying at lesser discount too..ofcourse upside is limited in that case<br /><br />on hinduja ..their holding cash in abroad was an issue ..but overtime i have reviwed their conference call transcript and annual report disclosure and found them to be fine ..also they are being conservative with the cash ..which is fine<br /><br />no ..you wont find ricoh's analysis on the blog ..never published it :) ..was too lazy to do so ..just bought it and it has done fine ..its not very undervalued now<br /><br />rgds<br />rohitRohit Chauhanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00356455735241398199noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-37891162907483732342010-11-08T05:26:28.715+05:302010-11-08T05:26:28.715+05:30Hi sachin
a happy diwali to you too. i hope i have...Hi sachin<br />a happy diwali to you too. i hope i have answered your question in the previous comment<br /><br />rgds<br />rohitRohit Chauhanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00356455735241398199noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-21023347560013484142010-11-08T05:25:19.397+05:302010-11-08T05:25:19.397+05:30Hi rayhaan
persistence is a good quality in being ...Hi rayhaan<br />persistence is a good quality in being successful<br /><br />dude ..you write like your smsing ...so many questions in one comment ...for 'older' guys like me make it simpler :)<br /><br />on teesta agro ..i couldnt see value ..too small ..had zero debt ..low margins and not very impressive topline and bottom line growth ..so if you know something beyond the standard numbers ..then maybe ..but i will personally not invest<br /><br />on tech analysis ..feel free to comment ..just that i dont follow it and care less about it<br /><br />on illiquid stocks - nothing against it ..i have bought a lot in the past ..but there has to be value in it<br /><br />rgds<br />rohitRohit Chauhanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00356455735241398199noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-45527101731399312412010-11-08T05:19:09.874+05:302010-11-08T05:19:09.874+05:30Hi prasanth
thats the issue ..no time these to do...Hi prasanth<br /><br />thats the issue ..no time these to do some patient analysis ..anyway will look at it<br /><br />rgds<br />rohitRohit Chauhanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00356455735241398199noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-44931386241316657472010-11-08T05:18:12.423+05:302010-11-08T05:18:12.423+05:30Hi mahendra
I think i may have glanced at HB somet...Hi mahendra<br />I think i may have glanced at HB sometime back...question is how will the value get unlocked ? the market will discount it till the management gives some visibility to how the value will returned to the shareholders ...dividend .buyback or something else<br /><br />rgds<br />rohitRohit Chauhanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00356455735241398199noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-28795874339972971662010-11-08T05:16:33.467+05:302010-11-08T05:16:33.467+05:30hi vineeth
operating leverage comes when the ratio...hi vineeth<br />operating leverage comes when the ratio of fixed expense to variable expense is high ...as a result if the price increases, profit increases rapidly<br /><br />happen most in asset heavy companies ...so low for companies the low asset - fixed and working capital ratios ..such companies have high operating leverage.<br /><br />now operating leverage is a double edged sword ..cuts both ways ..helps on the upside and can kill on the downside<br /><br />rgds<br />rohitRohit Chauhanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00356455735241398199noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-4352553048416168622010-11-08T05:14:22.231+05:302010-11-08T05:14:22.231+05:30Hi anon
thanks for the wishes. happy deepawali to ...Hi anon<br />thanks for the wishes. happy deepawali to you and your family too.<br /><br />on the paid service, on one needs it now ..just get a monkey and ask him to throw darts ..buy those stocks and you will make money. cheaper to feed the monkey than pay me :)<br /><br />i am joking ....have some personal stuff which i am sorting<br /><br />rgds<br />rohitRohit Chauhanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00356455735241398199noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7004453.post-12594848107165620712010-11-05T04:55:30.699+05:302010-11-05T04:55:30.699+05:30Hi Rohit,
Wish you and your family a very happy D...Hi Rohit,<br /><br />Wish you and your family a very happy Diwali too!!<br /><br />I have question on some of your ideas that are still attractive:<br />1) FDC: Does current price has enough MOS? You mentioned, it would be attractive below 70. I know you change your view very quickly..:-)<br />2) Hinduja Global: I see it is at almost year low. What's the reason for such a drastic drop? I didn't see any update from you regarding their results lately. I recall there was an article sometime back on how the company has some account in Mauritius, it was definitely some major negative that you usually stay away from. So I was surprised to see that you're adding to it.<br />3) I can't find Ricoh India analysis of yours. I'm sure I saw it somewhere on your blog earlier.<br /><br />As always, thanks for the regular, informative and useful posts.<br /><br />I want to be like you when I grow up..:-)<br /><br />VikasVikas Ranahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05508406035178681504noreply@blogger.com